through higher stocking rates, improved grass varieties and better grassland management) could release existing low-input, degraded pastureland for conversion to intensive cropland without further disturbance to natural ecosystems 11, 12. The intensification of beef production (e.g. For example, an increase in both crop yield and cropping area is likely needed to meet future sugar and bioethanol demand 10. The country’s enormous land base, generally favourable climate and deep soils provide large potential to further expand agricultural output through both agricultural intensification and controlled cropland expansion. It is the second largest global supplier of food and agricultural products, and is forecast to be the foremost supplier to meet future global food demand 7. Tollefson 9 considered Brazil a global farm because of its large potential contribution to world food production. Important frontier areas of cropland expansion have been in Mato Grosso and Pará States, and in the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia states), and these areas are expected to continue expanding up to 2030 and beyond 8. lime and fertilizers) and expansion of the cultivated land area 5, 6, 7 (Figs S1, S2 and supplementary discussion on the green revolution in Brazil). improved varieties, double cropping and no-tillage cultivation systems), investment in agrochemicals (e.g. Brazil is one example of a nation whose agricultural output has increased rapidly in recent decades due to advances in agronomic practices (e.g. A key challenge for society is to achieve agricultural intensification sustainably without further depletion of natural capital, degradation of the environment, or threats to human well-being 2, 3, 4. agricultural expansion), unless more effort is focused on the first option (agricultural intensification). A recent analysis 1 suggested that global crop yields are not increasing sufficiently rapidly to avoid the less sustainable second option (i.e. Two main strategies exist to meet rising global food and biofuel demand: intensify the existing agricultural land area as much as possible, and/or expand into areas with native vegetation which would be detrimental to global biodiversity. In the longer-term, farming systems in Brazil should be redesigned to operate profitably but more sustainably under lower soil P fertility thresholds. However, the much larger legacy stores of secondary P in the soil (30 Tg in 2016 worth over $40 billion and rising to 105 Tg by 2050) could provide a more important buffer against future P scarcity or sudden P price fluctuations, and enable a transition to more sustainable P input strategies that could reduce current annual P surpluses by 65%. livestock manures, sugarcane processing residues) could potentially provide up to 20% of crop P demand by 2050 with further investment in P recovery technologies. A new strategic analysis of current and future P demand/supply concluded that the nation’s secondary P resources which are produced annually (e.g. Brazil’s large land base is important for global food security but its high dependency on inorganic phosphorus (P) fertilizer for crop production (2.2 Tg rising up to 4.6 Tg in 2050) is not a sustainable use of a critical and price-volatile resource.
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